Have you ever heard of a stop placement strategy that trails stop based on previous 'high' points? It is called Chandelier exit as it hangs down from the high point or the ceiling of our trade, just as a chandelier hangs from a room ceiling. The distance, which is usually calculated from the high point to the trailing stop; could also be calculated in dollars or in contract based points. However, the value of this trailing stop moves upward very promptly as higher highs is reached.
The Chandelier Exit, which has a trailing stop from either the highest high of the trade or the highest close of the trade, is best measured in units of Average True Range (ATR). One of the many factors leading to use ATR for measuring the distance from the high to our stop is that, it is pertinent across markets and is adaptive to changes in unpredictability.
The essence of this calculative measure is that, even on expansion and contraction of trading ranges, our stop will automatically adjust and move to the apt level, thereby, constantly staying in tune with changing market conditions. Chandelier Exit is one of the most tried exit methodology used across a varied portfolio of futures markets to generate profitable test results.
It is imperative that the changes in unpredictability can curtail or stretch the distance to the actual stop, since the highs used to hang the Chandelier move only upward. However, in order to witness less fluctuation in the stop distance, you can use a longer moving average to calculate Average True Range. In other ways, shorter moving average is required, in case you want the stop placement to be more adaptive to fluctuating market conditions.
When short averages for the ATR is used; brief periods of small ranges can bring the stops too close, abnormally resulting in premature exit. To avoid this, you can have a short and highly adaptive ATR while calculating a short average and a longer average and using the average that produces the widest stop.
Although Chandelier Exit differs from Channel Exit (which trails a stop based on previous 'low' points), the combination of both, where the trade is initialized by the trailing Channel Exit and then adding the Chandelier Exit, after the price has moved away from the entrance point, will help in making the open trade lucrative. Here the Channel Exit is fastened at a low point and does not move up as new profits are accomplished. At the same time, it is necessary to have the Chandelier Exit at the right position so that the exits are never too far away from the high point of the trade.
The fundamentals behind combining the exit techniques, Channel and Chandelier exit is that, while Channel Exit as a suitable stop that very steadily rises at the commencement of the trade, switching over to Chandelier Exit is necessary to ensure better exit that protects more of our profit. This feature makes Chandelier Exit one of the most sought after rational exits from the profitable trades.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Knowing the Ins and Outs of Chandelier Exit
Why "Follow-Through" Is Imperative For Your Market Position
Endurance is counted as a high merit in great accomplishments, especially in forex market. Great men frequently advise to be consistent in big changes of market tendencies and "Follow Through" in breakthroughs.
If you have made a price change one day and you get success out of it then you should continue your endeavors in the same route in coming days and this trading movement is called the "Follow Through".
But this kind of breakthrough is not that much simple. Market does not accept big changes frequently. It goes back over those trends present previously in the trade and at the end of the day when all is going to end, forex prices repeat the same trend seen some days before.
Nobody is a faultless and ideal merchant. All the brokers and traders constantly discover a lot about the trading and aim not to repeat their past mistakes and blunders. I can give you many instances about my learning and it all happens when you don't show patience and consistency. When you don't wait and take a great step thinking it would be a huge success, but it is not all what we think.
I was planning about the corn market and had a keen eye on it for a long time. I was waiting and hanging around for the market to show a big change in a persistent downside trend of the prices and counteract it. One day there appeared a little upside move in the corn price but was not near to counteract it. I was out of my workplace for coming days and was unable to meet my broker or the info about the rates. I made a call to my dealer and ordered corn for a buy-stop at a price which was much higher than the downside trend. It did so because I thought if it worked, it would be a very tough change in the price to counteract the constant downside trend and it will indicate an uphill breakthrough in the every day price bar map. That day I had some jinx and blip in my mind which was disapproving my decision and asking me to take time and "follow through" the price tendency to make the price break sure. Next morning the corn's price inclination was high enough to strike my end and made me "in" the market. But it was not for a long time. Corn rates again overturned and threw my corn prices out soon.
The perception after observation is always true. But this mistake taught me the significance of patience and consistency to give the market enough time to indicate follow through movement to make a prospective trading arrangement sure. But a dealer also has some risk of absence and getting advantage of a big price change if he keeps on waiting. But it is more sensible to be cautious and wait for the market to verify the follow through movements in the coming days.
Sometimes market shows a relaxing session in the price movement and then verifies the great changes in the coming days. But mostly the follow through movement is going to come in the next session if expected.
13 SECRETS THAT GENERATED 992 PIPS NET PROFIT IN 15 FOREX TRADING DAYS
There is no hype in this headline. This is the absolute truth. The following 13 secrets generated 992 pips net profits for me in 15 trading days.
1 do not over expose your account .maintain an account exposure of between 10% and 30%.
2 Always trust god to find and join the trend early. Always learn to test the strength of the trend with the ADX.
3 Understand your best entry and exit points using pivot points and/or fibonnacci retracements
4 Understand the key japanese candlesticks Reversal patterns.
5 Know when the market is down or when the trend is weak and trade accordingly or stay away.
6 Only use take profit according to predetermined market potential.
7 Buy in oversold markets: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this
8 sell in overbought market: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this.
9 Never entertain fear even when the market moves against you. If you have a good trading system., it will surely come back in your favour.
10 Do not be greedy: Show contentment in all things and this demon will be far from you.
11 Do not over trade: Learn to draw a line between over trading and fear.
12 Always pray before making a trading decision: There is always a guiding light from god if only you will trust him.
!3 Rely on the holy spirit for guidance. He is very dependable and will never leave noy forsake you if you surrender the battle to him.
Send a blank e mail to wealthklub@yahoo.com to Get a free report on a powerful forex trading system that generates an average of 500 pips($5000 on a standard account) monthly plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger
Successful Forex Trading System
There are two kinds of trading systems - the discretionary and the mechanical. Discretionary trading systems expect the trader to use his or her own judgement to ascertain the importance of each of the technical or fundamental signals (whose number is potentially infinite) that he or she gets. Mechanical trading systems operate on a fixed number of technical or fundamental signals without the participation of the trader. Discretionary trading systems require the perpetual application of creativity (flexibility of approach) from the trader in the understanding of the changing market conditions. Mechanical trading systems require the creativity from the trader only in the forex system development phase.
Discretionary forex trading systems are best employed by professional forex traders with a lot of experience (internalized practical market knowledge) against which they can determine the validity of any signal that they receive. These traders usually remember a large number of various signal patterns from the past (just like the master chessmen) that they can compare to the current market conditions, to make their analysis more objective. In essence, they use themselves (i.e. their brain) as their trading system - often very successfully - because human mind has the best pattern recognition power on the planet.
Starting currency traders are advised to begin by following professionally created mechanical forex trading systems. Most of these systems are sold-out in the form of the forex signals that are usually developed by experienced traders who have found a way to systemize their knowledge of the markets into a working strategy. At the same time, the beginning traders can work on building their own knowledge base of the forex market through the quality forex books, educational courses, bank reports and newswires on this subject -so that they can too, with time, create mechanical trading systems from their own insights and intuitions (using the forex charting packages which allow to do this).
Beginning without a proven mechanical forex trading system (that has positive mathematical expectation) drastically dilutes the chances of maintaining the capital. This is because any intuition or a hunch that the traders experience as a result of some newly gained knowledge of the forex market is likely to be overridden by one of the two emotional derivatives of their life-long programming towards the money - the greed and the fear. In other words, without exact adherence to an existing mechanical trading system the beginning trader will eventually succumb to his or her emotions. As a matter of fact, the only way the traders can acquire discipline in the early phases of their trading careers is by tight following the signals generated by a proven mechanical forex trading system.
Note: Neural Network Packages (e.g. NeuroShell) emulate the process of human learning and can be used to accumualte the knowledge of the past technical and/or fundamental signal patterns (just like the mind of professional forex traders does) for the purpose of the future currency price forecasting.
Quote: "A mechanical approach to the markets can be successful and this is backed up by the fact that approximately 80% of the $30 billion in the managed futures industry is traded by exact systematic methods", from the "The Ultimate Trading Guide" by John R. Hill, George Pruitt, and Lundy Hill.
2.2. Components of a Forex Trading System.
A regular forex trading system consists of two subsystems - the entry system and the exit system. These systems can operate on a different or the same set of inputs. The inputs can be technical or fundamental signals.A system consists of a number of rules which interpret the signals that it receives. The entry system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the positions should be opened. The exit system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the open positions should be closed.
The propose of an entry system is to find market points which allow to open positions with high potential reward and low potential risk (high reward-to-risk ratio). The risk is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying opposite to the entry direction (above entry for sell and below entry for buy). The reward is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying in the direction of the entry (above entry for buy and below entry for sell). It is generally advised that the traders accept only the trades with the reward-to-risk ratio of over 2 (e.g. risk=60 pips, reward=130 pips). All the same, depending on the accuracy of a trading system (i.e. the percentage of the winning trades of all the past trades) this requirement might be shifted to a lower or a higher value without sacrificing the profitability of the system. This is because the true measure of the long term profitability of a forex trading system is neither the average per-trade reward-to-risk ratio nor the accuracy of the system but the combination of these two measures which is calculated as the mathematical expectation of a trading system. In the absence of the accuracy measure of a trading system (as is the case with some discretionary trading systems) - the trader ought strive to find entries with the greatest possible reward-to-risk ratio.
Note: Elliott wave analysis allows to find entries with extremely high reward-to-risk ratios (e.g. just check some of reports on MTPredictor's site). It is worth noting that MTPredictor automatically calculates the reward-to-risk ratios and helps to find optimum entry points based on these ratios. Some Elliot wave software developers (e.g. Advanced Get) also supply their subscribers with detailed Elliott wave trading plans.
The aim of an exit system is to protect the capital base and the unrealized profits. The capital base is shielded by ensuring that the trades are exited with a fixed loss when the reasons for holding them are no longer valid. This is done by triggering a stop-loss order on your forex brokerage account when the price crosses the level which defined your risk at the entry. If you are a discretionary trader, forcing yourself to place the slop-loss on each trade and to stick to it no matter what will make you very selective about your entries - which ought increase your profitability. The unrealized profits are protected either by a take-profit order which is triggered on your brokerage account when the price reaches the level which defined your profit at the entry or with the help of the trailing stop-loss which gradually locks in more profits as the price moves in your favour. In fact, the trailing stop-loss exit can be more suitable than the fixed take-profit exit if you wish to profit from the extending "character" of some impulse waves. In such a event the trailing stop-loss can be placed just a few pips opposite to the trendline which defines impulse wave. There is one more type of exit which can be used to protect the trader from missing trading opportunities - the time exit. A time exit is triggered if a trade hasn't reached either its stop-loss or take-profit level in the specified period of time. Exiting such trades reduces the chances that the capital will be tied up when better opportunities appear on the other currency pairs.
Note: Most forex newswires (e.g. Marketnews) are a great source of real-time information on the location of the major support and resistance levels and clusters of large orders that are watched by professional forex traders and which can be used to manually update the position of your trailing stop-loss.
2.3. Development of a Currency Trading System.
Making a mechanical forex trading system involves a number of steps: 1) Selecting the inputs for the trading system - technical analysis or fundamental analysis tools which will generate the signals for the system; 2) Developing the rule-set which will operate on these signals; 3) Optimizing the parameters of the analysis tools used to produce the signals; 4) Backtesting and forwardtesting the system over historical price data. Each of these steps is covered in more detail below:
2.3.1. Selecting the Inputs for the Trading System
It is important to base your selection of inputs to the system on a sensible premise about the way the currency markets operate. As an example, you can use 200-day moving average to determine if the market is in a long-term up or down trend because a large proportion of professional forex traders use this technical tool to measure market trendiness. It is also better to combine technical analysis tools of different type and scale because this increases the chances of finding high-probability entry points (those that are likely to be followed by sharp currency price moves in your favour), which should, in turn, contribute to the overall system accuracy.
If you use technical tools only on the higher time-frame charts like the daily or the weekly charts this will increase the duration of the trades and the time periods out of the market - because the signals will take longer to form. Either of these outcomes can have detrimental impact on the trader and investor morale during the inevitable losing streaks as is shown by our forex trading simulator (Please note: The size of this page is 0,6 Mbs and it requires that you have Flash installed and Javascript enabled in your browser). which can last longer than they are naturally prepared to wait. This makes it important to focus on lower time-frame charts (e.g. hourly charts) for signal generation which will lead to shorter trade durations and, consequently, to quicker recoveries from the drawdowns. Shorter trade durations can also help to the trader to defeat the temptation to overtrade because he or she can expect to see the next entry signal in the next couple of days - not in the next couple of weeks.
Quote: "Your freedom to choose your time-frame is too valuable to lose. Investors and margined speculators, on the other hand, can choose their own time-frames. This is one of their positional advantages, to use a favourite notion of Larry Hite* , one of the founders of Mint Investment Corp* - one of the largest of the futures fund operators. Investors and speculators can choose. Obviously it makes sense to choose time frames which match any natural rhythms that can be discerned in the currency markets." John Percival in his book "The Way of the Dollar".
Note: If you are using the Elliott Wave analysis your average holding period will depend on the degree of the impulse or corrective waves that you are trading.
Choosing which fundamental factors are best for your forex trading system (e.g. as inputs to your neural network) can be very hard because the effect of various economic indicators on the currency prices changes with time. In other words, the strength of correlation between the price of a currency pair and the fundamental factors relevant to it is not fixed (even with interest rate differentials). In contrast, the relationship between the price patterns (especially the classical price patterns) and trader psychology (the driving force behind most important price moves) remains fairly stable over the years. This is the reason why the forex traders are encouraged to dedicate most of their efforts to building trading systems around the technical analysis.
Another all-important question is the time horizon of the prediction that the trader is trying to make with his system. Better not to try to forecast currency prices too far into the future. This is because the number and the complexity of interaction of various technical and fundamental factors rises geometrically with each trading day. It is, therefore, best to "leave" this task to high-end investment banks and houses which alone have the capacity to perform the necessary calculations inherent in longer-term currency course forecasting. It is more practical for the typical currency trader to concentrate on capturing the so-called "knee-jerk" market reactions driven by crowd emotionalism through the analysis of the current technical or fundamental conditions.
You can create these rules based on your observation of how the prices move in relation to various technical and fundamental indicators. For example, you might notice that currency prices tend to resume trending behaviour after they correct toward and touch 200-day moving average. You can use this observance to formulate a rule which will enter the markets when the prices bounce off from the 200-day moving average. You could also notice that the prices tend to stop trending when they touch the outer daily Bollinger bands. You can use this information to create a rule which will exit the trades once the prices penetrate the outer daily Bollinger Band. Because making rule-sets for mechanical trading systems forces you to quantify your insights about the market this practice aids to clarify them.
The rule-set of a forex trading system is in essence the clarified version of the weighing algorithms that you naturally create in your mind as you learn the technical and fundamental analysis and observe the price action. I say "weighing" because most of the technical rules are transcribed in your mind as fuzzy patterns (e.g. "The longer the shadows of a doji the more likely the reversal" or "The steeper the trendline - the more bullish or bearish the market sentiment."). When you make the trading system, you transfer your knowledge to the computer in the form that can be understood by it. Admittedly, the quality of the computerized model very often will fall short of the actual mental model that you keep in your head. Nevertheless, the real advantage of the "mechanicizing" your market knowledge is the power to objectively determine the validity of your trading ideas by the process of the backtesting. It should be noted that the closest the computers approach to simulating the complexity of human comprehension of the market patterns is in the neural network packages.
Neural network packages can be especially effective if you wish to model your way of weighing the strength of support or resistance levels. For example, if you believe that fibonacci retracements are more reliable entry points if they are confirmed by reversal candlestick patterns and/or RSI divergence you can "ask" a neural network to search for past occurrences of this pattern combination and determine the actual numeric weight that should be placed on each of these technical signals for the entry or exit to occur. This process is very advantageous because it allows the computer to extend your natural pattern recognition ability by perfecting (or objectifying) the weights associated with each technical input/signal. This way you can objectively measure the strength or the beauty of the technical setups that you encounter in your trading (e.g. the resultant model might require the position to be opened if the total sum of signal weighs is bigger than 0,5 where a reversal candlestick signal is "worth" 0,15, fibonacci retracement is "worth" 0,3 and the RSI divergence is "worth" 0,45). In essence, your forex trading system is the description of how beautiful your trading setups should be, where "beauty" is defined as the convergence of confirming signals from different type and/or scale technical analysis tools. Advanced users of the neural networks can go even further by tying the position size (within the maximum percentage value set by their money management system) to the strength or the beauty of the technical setup. If done decently this practice will allow them to make the most of the best trading opportunities while simultaneously reducing the exposure on the less promising setups.
Meta4: An fascinating parallel to weighing the signals in order to determine if the position should be taken or not is the way people fall in love. Each individual carries a certain number of unconscious or semi-conscious qualifiers that "describe" in more or less fuzzy terms the appearance, the character, the temperament of their likely mate. When you meet the person who posses enough of these traits (i.e. above some "threshold" or unconscious minimum) the cascade of the confirming signals sets your mind off into the love state. A similar process occurs in the mind of discretionary trader when the market action through all of its technical and/or fundamental signals (i.e. "when all the pieces fit") activates the hunch or intuition response from him or her. If you compare the brain of a discretionary trader to a neural network the hunch finds its direct expression in the output neuron. The similarity between the process of falling in love and experiencing a hunch is probably behind such market advices as "do not marry your trades" or "do not fall in love with your trades". To stretch the similarity further we can compare a stop-loss order to the practice employed by some of the married couples called the "boundary". The boundary is the some form of behaviour unacceptable to the other spouse which if violated will lead to the end of relationship. Yet another analogue is between adding to a losing position and trying to win a favour of an unloving partner - the more you invest the harder it is to let go and the more likely you are to end up destroyed financially (emotionally in the relationships). As a final comparison the neural networks allow to model the connections among the ideas in the human mind in a similar way that a website through all its external and internal links permits to express the specific mental idea-network of its creator.
Quote: "I use all forms of technical analysis, but interpret them through gut feel. I do not believe in mathematical systems that always approach markets in the same way. Using myself as the "system," I constantly change the input to achieve the same output—profit!", Mark Weinstein in Jack D. Schwager's book "Market Wizards".
Note: It should be marked that the effectiveness of your model will always be only as good as the inputs that you give or "feed" to it (as someone said - "Garbage in, garbage out"). This is because computers merely extend your pattern recognition ability and cannot be relied upon to think up a winning system on their own - if this was false, the markets would have been cornered long ago by the guy with the most powerful computer.
2.3.3. Optimizing the Parameters of the Analysis Tools used to Produce the Signals
Some forex charting packages (e.g. TradeStation) permit to optimize the parameters of the technical indicators that you use in your forex trading system. Optimization allows to find parameter values of your indicators that result in the biggest profit (most frequently used measure of system performance in optimization) from the trading system over the past data. An good example of the optimization is looking for the best time-period parameters for a two-moving-averages crossover system. Commonly the periods of two moving averages are stepped from 1 to 50 in steps of 1 and the trading results for each of around 250 moving average combinations are recorded and then sorted to find the most profitable combination. Such process of going though all possible parameter combinations is called brute force optimization. As the number of indicators used in your system increases arithmetically the number of potential parameter combinations increases geometrically. The total number of parameter combinations is, therefore, said to be subject to combinatorial explosion. For example, to optimize a system with 5 indicators each of which has 50 different parameter values you would have to cycle through 312 500 000 (50^5) possible parameter combinations. The only way you can expect to quickly solve such huge optimization problems in your lifetime is through the use of generic optimizers (e.g. OptEvolve for the TradeStation or NeuroShell Trader Professional).
Optimization of the time-period parameter of the cycle-based indicators like Stochastics permits to automatically adapt them to the cycles present in the market instead of using the default time-period values - which is the method originally used by the developer of Stochastics.
As a final note, try not to over optimize your indicators because majority of the professional forex traders use default indicator settings. You are looking for trading setups where the smart money will be acting (as opposed to the general investor public) so it doesn't make much practical sense to use indicator settings that hardly any professional forex trader is aware of.
2.3.4. Backtesting and Forwardtesting the System over Historical Price Data.
Backtesting allows to see how your system would have performed if it was run during some period in the past. You optimize indicator parameters using the price data in the backtesting period. It is crucial that the time period that you backtest your system on is representative of the currency pair that you wish to trade - it should include all types of market conditions (trending, rangebound) and it should be as recent as possible. Once you are comfortable with the performance of your system you forward test it - you run it on the out-of-sample price data (the price data that would be immediate future to the backtesting period). This way you can see if the system is able to perform likewise to the way it did during the backtesting. The closer the system's performance during the forward testing is to its performance during the backtesting the more robust the system and the more assured you can be that it will continue to trade in a similar manner during the real-time trading. You could also wish to trade your system on a forex demo account for some time before beginning to trade it with the real money.
Backtesting aids the trader or investor to determine if they are prepared psychologically for the live trading of a forex trading system. By examiningthe past performance of a system they can decide if the size of the drawdown, the number of the consecutive losses and the average duration of the trades are acceptable for them. For the complete list of the performance measures that you could wish to review before starting to trade with professionally-created mechanical trading systems please visit the forex signals page. In contrast to the mechanical trading systems the discretionary trading systems cannot be backtested because the discretionary traders cannot guarantee that they will react to a similar set of signals in the future in the same manner that they did in the past.
2.4. Implementation of a Forex Trading System.
There are two ways you can implement a forex trading system - either manually or automatically. Discretionary trading systems can only be followed by the manual placing of the trades. Mechanical trading systems are better followed though the use of automation.
If you are following a discretionary trading system you will be generally screening the currency markets for the signals that you have outlined in your checklist. The checklist is the description of the technical or fundamental trading signals that your trading system's rule-set operates on. The checklist could also contain the guidelines on how often you should check your forex charts/forex newswires for the signals (using the economic news calendar provided by the forex newswires as your fundamental signal timing tool); in contrast, the mechanical forex trading systems will be going through their own checklists with every second, 24 hours a day - which no human being can possibly do. Having a elaborate checklist will help you to be more disciplined in the application of your system. It is better to write your checklist in the form of the questionnaire. You can automate your search for some technical signals with the help of those forex charting packages which allow you to set up the sound or email/SMS alerts to notify you whenever the technical signal of your interest is generated (e.g. in Intellicharts). The forex bank reports and the forex newswires frequently issue mini reports of technical conditions on the market which most often are merely the "filled-in" versions of the same checklist.
Manual implementation of the mechanical signals is NOT recommended. Since the signals are generated by the computer you will always feel compelled to double-check them against you own experience - since no computer can model your thinking with 100% accuracy. This can lead to the delays and/or missing of some of the signals which can potentially undermine the system profitability, that rests on the principle of taking each signal exactly at the time it is generated. A lot is being said about the widespread lack of the discipline in taking the signals of the mechanical forex trading systems. This trouble can be easily overcome though the use of a reliable signal automation service. You solve all emotional troubles associated with the manual trading of the signals by simply automating this process. Elimination of the emotions from the trading through the use of the automated mechanical forex trading systems should explain their popularity amidst the multi-billion dollar hedge fund industry.
An crucial aspect of mechanical system trading is the monitoring of its real-time performance. The concealed market dynamics (a particular way of reacting to technical or fundamental signals that an important grouping of forex market participants shares - or, systematic mass investor impulsiveness) that your system has captured during the back-testing may be switching or might already have changed at the time you start to trade your system with the real money. The single way you can say that the market dynamics that you are focusing on have changed or not is to compare the real-time and the past system perofrmance. If the system continues to perform like it did on the backtesting then you can conclude that the market dynamics it targets have not yet changed. If you notice important deviations in such system performance measures like the maximum peak-to-valley drawdown, the average duration of trades, the average value of the profits/losses, the maximum number of consecutive winners/losses, it can signal that an important shift in market dynamics is taking place (e.g. a group of investment banks have modified their trading models). The fastest way to update your system to the changes in market dynamics is available for the neural network packages - which allow to retrain your model over the most recent price history. Retraining a neural network involves readjusting its matrix of weighs which allows it to stay attuned to the current market conditions. If mechanical trading systems suffer form the paradigm shifts on the market - the same can be said of the human mind (discretionary trading systmes) which tends to be very inflexible once a partciluar way of doing things (i.e. trading style) is ingrained in it.
2.5. Mastering System Trading.
To master system trading you ought have the patience to wait calmly for the entry or the exit signal from your own forex trading system and act only on them - irregardless of the technical or fundamental conditions that you see in-between these signals. It is no wonder why the best traders prefer to compare themselves to skilful predators when they describe their trading style:
Quote: "Top traders love the hunting metaphor to describe what they do. One of them, for example, claims he is like a cheetah. The cheetah can outrun any animal, but it still stalks its prey. It won't attack until it is right on top of its prey. In addition, the cheetah usually waits for a weak or lame animal to get close. Another top trader told me that he trades like a lion. He watches the herd for weeks until something other than his presence causes the herd to panic. When the herd panics, he then chases a weak or lame animal that appears most confused. The difference between an average hunter and a really skilled animal like the swift cheetah or the cunning lion is that the skilled hunter waits until the odds are overwhelmingly in his favor", from "The Ten Tasks of Top Trading" by Van K. Tharp.
Quote: "Much of the time, even professionals don't have a clear picture of what is going on, but they have learned to have the patience to wait for select, specific setups. You must learn to trade on only the most recognizable and reliable patterns." from the "Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies".
The most important rule of systematic trading is to take each and every trading signal that your system generates. Only by taking all the signals at the time they are generated can you count on replicating the past performance of your system. If you have the slightest suspicion that you will not be able to take all the signals - either due to the timing of the signals or your busy schedule - you should arrange for the signals to be automatically traded.
At the end of the day, a forex trading system just like the money management system serves to protect yourself from your own destructive tendencies which very often mask themselves as the "well-meaning" hunches and gut responses. This doesn't mean that you shouldn't trust your instincts - only that you should base your trades on them only if you can eliminate emotions from your decisions. This is because a trading system is a method to profit from other traders' emotional instability, therefore, if you do not control your own emotions you will not be able to profit from any system. Removing the emotions from your manual trading can take years (!!!)- so it can be more practical and profitable to simply autotrade your system.
Even if you start your currency trading career by following a professionally created forex trading system you will receive full satisfaction from the trading - in terms of profit and self-actualization - only if you make and trade a successful system of your own. One of the best books which can help you to start this fascinating journey is "Mechanical Trading Systems: Pairing Trader Psychology with Technical Analysis" by Richard L. Weissman.
Quote: " In the meantime, it cannot be emphasized enough that, at the very least, genuine success in trading markets involves the adoption of a trading system. Without the discipline of such a system, the very best efforts are likely to be doomed to failure." Tony Plummer in his book "Forecasting Financial Markets: The Psychology of Successful Investing".
There are no certainties in the forex trading, since the future will never be exactly the same as the past. There are only probabilities, which you can systematically put in your favour with the help of a established forex trading system.
DISCOVER 2 STRATEGIES FOR MAKING OVER USD2000 WEEKLY AS A BREAKOUT FOREX TRADER
When a major fundamental announcement is to be released, few minutes to this time we see the market moving in a very choppy sideways or counter trend. During this time, breakout traders who straddle the news position themselves well ahead of the said news event to take advantage of the initial price spike. Note that not all news event support this strategy. Using this strategy, you ay only need to be in the market for about 5minutes and you are out with profit or a little loss.
You use this strategy by first of all knowing the time of the news release using the economic calendars then find out if the news event supports this strategy. Having done the above, you then go to your platform 5 or 3 minutes before the news event and set up your orders.
The news event that supports this strategy are interest rate statements from US EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. EUROPE- EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY. And EUR/USD. UNITED KINGDOM-GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, NEWZEALAND AND CANADA. Other news events that supports this strategy are non-farm payroll from US , unemployment rate and employment change from Canada and Australia, German Zew economic sentiment, BOE MPC meeting minutes e.t.c.. the minimum each of this news events can generate is 30pips within 10 minutes so do not be greedy with profits. If you take only 20pips per event on a standard account, with just 10 events per week that will give you $2000 per week. Also try factoring in risk.
Technical breakout; this kind of breakout occurs without any news event in sight. It can happen during the opening hours or close of the market. Before the opening of certain currency pairs and market sessions, the market is usually in a very choppy mood and quiet too. During this time the big moves are being planned and you should learn to move along with them. Quite often the market would have determined the direction it wants to move before it becomes quiet attempting to determine where to breakout.
What's the Best Forex Strategy?
Many forex traders find themselves asking the age old question what's the best forex strategy? To know the answer to that question, one must look at the history of trading. Not just forex trading, but trading, in general.
The moment that the first bell rang on the stock market floor, traders were coming up with strategies to beat the market. Obviously they didn't have the technology that most of us have at our disposal. They didn't have the thousand dollar charting platforms that so many traders are overpaying for, just for the privilege of using them, nowadays. So how do you think the successful traders of the past made their money?
Well, one way was through fundamental analysis. They were able to comprehend a company's financial statements such as balance sheets, income statements, statement of cash flows, etc. to know a bargain when they saw one. But these kind of people would be categorized as investors, not traders. Traders generally believed in technical analysis over fundamental analysis.
So how did traders of that generation made their money? Simple. They understood the concept of price action. Plenty of floor traders became rich just by paying attention to how the other floor traders were trading the respective stock.
How come a concept as simple as price action has been pushed back in favor of all the technological bells and whistles that most people use in their day to day trading?
People, today somehow feel that the best forex strategy has to be in these maze of indicators,colors, noises,and whatever else is en vogue nowadays. Its really quite sad that it has gotten to this point.
Traders used to pride themselves on how they were able to truly understand the market, but in the present time we live in, they are more worried about understanding what their indicators are telling them.
If you want to learn forex, then its a good idea to learn from our ancestors. The less is more approach has and will always result in more success. To find out more about price action and to get a forex trading education, make sure to visit Trading In The Buff.
DISCOVER 2 STRATEGIES FOR MAKING OVER USD2000 WEEKLY AS A BREAKOUT FOREX TRADER
When a major fundamental announcement is to be released, few minutes to this time we see the market moving in a very choppy sideways or counter trend. During this time, breakout traders who straddle the news position themselves well ahead of the said news event to take advantage of the initial price spike. Note that not all news event support this strategy. Using this strategy, you ay only need to be in the market for about 5minutes and you are out with profit or a little loss.
You use this strategy by first of all knowing the time of the news release using the economic calendars then find out if the news event supports this strategy. Having done the above, you then go to your platform 5 or 3 minutes before the news event and set up your orders.
The news event that supports this strategy are interest rate statements from US EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. EUROPE- EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY. And EUR/USD. UNITED KINGDOM-GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, NEWZEALAND AND CANADA. Other news events that supports this strategy are non-farm payroll from US , unemployment rate and employment change from Canada and Australia, German Zew economic sentiment, BOE MPC meeting minutes e.t.c.. the minimum each of this news events can generate is 30pips within 10 minutes so do not be greedy with profits. If you take only 20pips per event on a standard account, with just 10 events per week that will give you $2000 per week. Also try factoring in risk.
Technical breakout; this kind of breakout occurs without any news event in sight. It can happen during the opening hours or close of the market. Before the opening of certain currency pairs and market sessions, the market is usually in a very choppy mood and quiet too. During this time the big moves are being planned and you should learn to move along with them. Quite often the market would have determined the direction it wants to move before it becomes quiet attempting to determine where to breakout.
Forex Scalping Strategy
Forex scalping is the art of using high leverage and a large number of short term trades to steadily increase an account. Usually, only 1 to 5 pips are targeted for each trade. This type of trading appeals greatly to day traders and those looking to minimize the risk involved in trading currencies. Next to money management, "risk control" is the single most important trait to a surviving (and thriving) currency trader. The small amount of time that is spent in the market limits much of the risk in exposure in comparison to a longer term system. Also, the freedom involved in a speedy Forex scalping system in such a liquid market is a "magnet" that drives many traders from other markets to try their hand in currency. A disciplined and steady scalper could seamlessly double or triple an account, and spend only a fraction of the time in the market as a common day trader.
Forex Scalping - The Problem
Though Forex scalping may seem like a preverbal "holy grail" at first glance, there are still many unseen hurdles that surround the controversial method of trading. If you do wish to add scalping to your trading toolbox, it is extremely important to pick a broker who can support a scalpers's system. You will quickly find that many brokers do not allow scalp trading, as the method of quickly entering and exiting trades may actually cause the broker to lose money at the dealing desk. Forex scalping also does not give the broker a means to trade against their clients which is a way of money making for them. Out of the hundreds of online Forex brokers, only a handful support scalping. It is a very thin line between scalping and short term trading. Generally if you hold trades for a minute or less, you may have problems with brokers. They could warn you and then if you continue shut down your account. However, if you trade in minutes or more, most likely you will not have problems with dealing desk brokers. Non dealing desk (ECN) brokers allow scalping where you can hold a position for seconds however the minimum to open an account is higher ($2,000 and above).
Forex Scalping Strategy
Effective Forex scalping strategies take advantage of extremely slight price fluctuations (sometimes only 1-3 pips) many times in order to steadily build an account. Because of the smaller number of pips gained per trade, larger than normal leverages play a key role in a successful Forex scalping strategy. By leveraging much more than a standard day trader in a liquid environment, a very skilled scalp trader is able to make just as much money as the day trader in a shorter period of time. However, this is an obvious double-edged sword. The market can just as easily move against you on a high leverage, which could produce substantial blows to your account.
Also, it is important to take into consideration the physical and mental speed of a trader who will only stay in the market for seconds to minutes. Executing a scalping strategy by hand can be extremely difficult considering the quick amount of time you must be in and out of the market for your strategy to be affective. Many successful Forex scalping strategies are built to be automated; the rules to the system are coded into a trading platform to automatically perform scalp trades around the clock. Though it is completely possible to trade a Forex scalping strategy manually, the majority of today's traders would agree that automating the process based on a set of rules would be the best way to ensure speed and reliability. When choosing a platform to automate your scalp strategy, it is extremely important to stick with those platforms that allow the execution of your system on every tick (such as MetaTrader 4). This ensures that your entrances and exits will be on a per-tick basis, and will give you a much higher probable rate of success than those platforms who will execute your code more periodically.
To understand the full challenge of scalping as a trading style, consider this: hard work and small gains accumulated over a decent period of time could easily be wiped out with one large loss. Finding a balance between profit levels and size of acceptable losses presents the most difficult challenge to scalpers' strategy.
Forex scalping can be a good method of growing a managed Forex account quickly, but should not be looked at as the "holy grail" of trading. Most brokers do not support scalping, and a consistently profitable Forex scalping strategy can be very difficult to engineer. However, if much time and effort is spent in system optimization and setting up a good relationship with a scalp supporting broker, the benefits could be well worth the time spent.
Forex Trading Strategy - A Simple Timeless Method For Huge Gains
The methodology we are going to look at here is long term trend following with breakouts.
The one constant in Forex markets is they will trend for long periods of time in a sustained direction and as these trends reflect the underlying health of the economy, they will last for weeks months or years. If you can lock into these trends and hold them, with leverage on your side, you can make a lot of money but how do you get in on these trends and ride them?
The best way to get in on any trend is to buy a break of support or resistance, to a new chart high or low. You generally, want a level that has been tested at least twice and the more times the better. What you are looking for is a level which the traders consider important.
If the break is a good one the following will occur:
As soon as the level is penetrated, stops behind the level are hit and push the price further in favour of the breakout, technical buying kicks in and pushes the price further from the breakout point and then as the new trend develops retail buyers want to get on board pushing the trend even further.
It sounds simple and logical and it is but most traders have a problem with taking breakouts and it's rooted in their psychology. When the break occurs they think, I have missed the start of the move, so better wait for a pullback to get in but the really big breakouts don't come back, the trend develops and the trader who waited misses the move.
The trader who simply bought the beak, missed the first bit of the move but he has the odds on his side of a continuation of the trend and stands to make money.
Most traders want to predict and buy tops and bottoms and be perfect but that's impossible, if they focused purely on making money, they would see the logic of breakouts which is simply trade the reality of price change and forget prediction.
When trading breakouts, you need to be patient and wait for the best trading signals. You need to pick levels which have been tested several times and are considered important by traders.
Breakout trading can be done easily, by anyone and doesn't take long to learn. You can put together a simple, breakout strategy together in a week or so and then start enjoying currency trading success.
I know traders who trade just a few times a month, spend 30 minutes a day, on their Forex trading strategy and make triple digit annual gains. Discover breakout trading and you will have a simple, easy to understand and timeless way to make
Thursday, September 17, 2009
What trend in Forex Market
Currency's intrest Rates
Canadian Forex/Bond Comments:C$ strengthens
The Canadian dollar was trading at 92.81 US cents or US$1=C$1.0775 near the close of trade Friday, which compares to Thursday's North American close of 92.23 US cents or US$1=C$1.0842.
Crude oil, gold, and other commodities were all higher on Thursday, which was supportive for the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. The advances in equities were also supportive, as market participants continued to show an increased appetite for risk on Friday.
The eventual strength in the Canadian dollar came despite softer-than-expected Canadian gross domestic product data. Statistics Canada reported that the country's gross GDP declined by 0.5% in May. Average market estimates had been for a more modest 0.3% decline, and the data initially weighed on the Canadian dollar.
Canadian markets will be closed Monday for a civic holiday.
Canadian bonds finished higher on Friday, outperforming their US counterparts. The soft Canadian GDP data contrasted with a better-than-expected reading out of the US, which accounted for some of the relative strength in the Canadian bond market, said analysts.
What make a good trading strategy
Any trader who is more experienced will say a strategy should also include money management, risk control, perhaps stop losses and of course, an exit point. They might also say that you must let your profits run and cut your losses short. A well-read trader will also tell you that your strategy should fit with your trading personality.
BUT there is one other vital ingredient that many traders forget - and that is to fully understand the "personality" of what you trade. Some traders specialise in say, gold or Brent crude or currencies or they might specialise in a particular index such as the FTSE 100 or the Dow but many traders choose to trade shares. Indeed some traders dabble in a bit of everything. I think this is the area that causes many traders to fail or at least not reach their full potential.
BID and ASK Prices
Commission-free, but with spreads
Most Forex brokers offer commission-free Forex trading. Spread - The difference between the bid and ask price of a currency. Normally 3-5 pips on the Majors.
Trading With strtegy
Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature, is a volatile market. The practice of trading it by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very ’fast market’ which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders’ timing will be off. Don’t expect to generate returns on every trade.
Let’s enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side
Forex Hedging
How Forex Broker Work
Forex Trading Software: Profit Machines or Losers?
This software is called 'zombie', called robots, but it is always only to our customers. If the user does not know how to trade successfully
First and foremost he was he was not an immediate benefit from a bot. New users need to understand, but also take a few weeks to learn how to properly use the robot.
I use the block every day the "new" robot. Every trader should at least be aware of the existence of betting exchanges, and in reality, they can turn over millions of dollars of horses within minutes of the game, and with the game you return (to buy), down (sales ) horse odds, many new investors who jumped up to deal with the use of botnets and betting advantage. The best part is you do not have any movement in your trading knowledge and you can also trade on world financial markets like the FTSE 100 index, Nasdaq Stock symbol and exchange, a majority.
Free Expert Forex Trading Advisor For Every Account Opened Through Bestmt4brokers
Online Publicity News - 27 - 8 - 2009 - Coty Heights, Ohio (Onlineprnews) 2009 nian 8 27 - With the stock market crash, global economic slowdown, investment opportunities, each of them has made an unyielding. People who think that stock market investments, duck under the golden eggs forever, feel the heat go back to these ducks are fried. However, surveys and statistics show that foreign exchange transactions continue to be the impact of a global economic recession. With proper strategy planning currency trading, he said, to double investments in the near future. "Investors should be aware of this fact, there is a two-hour investment, and find success through foreign exchange transactions, if the planned investment strategy is correct. Planning and execution of a foreign exchange strategy greater investment is much easier today. There are many (web site: / / www.bestmt4brokers.com) Metatrader brokers and foreign exchange trading software that can help investors plan two major investment strategy. all they have to do is to find the best entry Metatrader
Learning Forex – Forex Trading Made Easy
You can get a broker to do marketing for you, or you can do yourself, and use automated forex trading software, rather than a help. Trading software, of course, is a simple way to market. It has even been used to the experts themselves. The software allows retailers to know that without a lot of headaches to go. It analyzes the existing market data. It calculates the probability. It allows brokers the opportunity to quickly make informed decisions. Automatically selects the appropriate trading software is another matter. Existing technology and personal preferences, will be required to choose help.
Another useful strategy is to take full advantage of online foreign exchange transactions. When you learn foreign exchange, you can not miss this popular, the most important approach to marketing. This is a common method of today's trading. He was released from various types of investors in the global foreign exchange market. Internet trading is a very appropriate foreign exchange market. The financial market is open 24 hours a day. This fact and technologies that enable e-commerce transactions allow you to do, day and night.
Whether you choose a marketing method, investments in the foreign exchange market, the real adventure in the financial world. Sometimes I lose, sometimes win. The trick is to know everything about it first from the Exchange Training
Are You Trading Forex Online For Income Or Wealth?
It is important. Even though you can make money with currency trading without having a clear aim in view, the ideal strategies and trading plan will be different depending on your aims for your investment. Something that a wealth builder considers to be a successful strategy could cause an income seeker to consider that he is failing at times. So let’s look at the differences and how to handle them in your online trading strategies.
If you are seeking profits for income, then your aim will be to live on the profits of your currency trading account. You may only have a small fund now but you will probably be hoping that in a few years you can give up your day job and pay all of the bills from your forex profits.
On the other hand, somebody who is building for wealth will not plan to take an income out of his profits. He will leave them in the account to grow. He may have the aim of building a retirement fund or some other plan where he will eventually use the money, but this is a long term goal and anything taken from the account in the meantime will be lump sums for a particular purchase rather than money to live on.
So someone who is trading for income has to make a certain amount of profit per month, or at least a certain average over a few months. You’d need your income to be reasonably stable and above a certain level, otherwise you risk not being able to pay the bills.
You would need some backup in the form of savings to cover you in the case of drawdown. You would also need extremely good money management and discipline to stick to your system in difficult times. Somebody who depends on trading forex online for their living expenses is under a lot more pressure and mindset will be crucial.
Traders who are building for wealth tend to trade less often because they do not feel this same pressure. Ironically, this can mean that they wait for clearer signals and make more consistent profits than the income trader. They do not mind if their money is tied up in a trade for weeks or even months. They do not need the profits right now.
Wealth builders are also able to accept a bigger drawdown. They take a longer term view and know that they will regain the losses and then some before they ever need to cash in. This means that, other things being equal, they can afford to take a bigger position with the associated bigger risk.
The bottom line is that if you are trading for income you should be looking for a system with low drawdown and your trading plan should be set for low risk. A system that provides frequent signals for small trades will probably suit you better than a system that waits for major trends and swings. If you have clear aims for your trading and understand the implications as set out in this article, you will put yourself in a good position to make profits from trading forex online.
Tips for Choosing a Forex Software
And then decide how to purchase foreign exchange software, there are some important questions you need to do is to avoid the software, you need to consider possible problems. Safety should be first and foremost, you should consider a 126 SSL encryption to help prevent hackers from stealing all the important data. The right software program should have 24 / all technical issues, maintenance and repair issues 7 service support, and continuous information store backup.
Finally, it called for foreign exchange broker, if the software system provides a number of additional free future updates, as well as a number of other important foreign exchange operations, to provide additional information to help you see the market as early as possible to assess the road.
Forex Trading Is Easier With The Right Software
Well, this is a simple explanation of foreign exchange. In foreign exchange trading can bring wealth. You just need to take risks, to see if you do.
Forex market is the largest and most liquid planet. There is no actual construction can move into action to testify Exchange. Unlike in New York and Chicago Stock Exchange, the exchange took place in the position of completely virtual world. Banks, government and large corporations trading continuously, all day and night in the open market and other countries to shut down. Foreign exchange, in itself is a series of computer networks and systems.
Money does not have a fixed value. Monetary value of each country's rapidly changing, and many times during the day and evening classes trade. Including foreign exchange value of money can be changed, because there are too many or no reason. Because of this uncertainty, all foreign exchange transactions is based primarily on speculation.